El impacto de la pandemia por COVID-19 sobre la incidencia delictiva: Evidencia para México y zonas metropolitanas

Raúl Vladimir Gómez-Díaz; Carlos Obed Figueroa-Ortiz

doi:10.33064/iycuaa2021843258

Authors

Raúl Vladimir Gómez-Díaz Universidad de Guadalajara https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0862-2106
Carlos Obed Figueroa-Ortiz Universidad de Guadalajara https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1351-0232

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33064/iycuaa2021843258

Keywords:

Covid-19, Time Series, Crime Incidence

Abstract

This work evaluates the impact caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the frequency of occurrence of different types of crimes. According to the theory, it is assumed that the measures implemented to avoid the increase in contagion rates, such as the reduction in the concentration of people and the low pedestrian mobility led to less crime rate. Monthly data reported to the SENSP for the period 2015-2020 are analyzed; namely, total criminal incidence, total malicious injuries, with firearms and with knives; as well as robberies to house rooms and passers-by, both with and without violence, both at the national level as for 9 metropolitan areas. The Hodrick-Prescott filter is used to decompose the previously seasonally adjusted original series and determine the variations in the trend, showing a clear change during the Healthy Distance National Journey´s period.

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Author Biographies

Raúl Vladimir Gómez-Díaz, Universidad de Guadalajara

Métodos Cuantitativos, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Económico Administrativas

Carlos Obed Figueroa-Ortiz, Universidad de Guadalajara

Cátedras CONACyT. Métodos Cuantitativos, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Económico Administrativas

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